Overview

Recovery in venture capital is concentrated, not broad. The Q1 2026 surge reflects capital flowing toward a small set of established leaders in AI infrastructure, climate-tech, and selective biotech. We frame how to evaluate within this concentration.

The shape of recovery

Aggregate funding is up, but median round size is flat. The mean is pulled by a few mega-rounds.

Selective sectors

AI infrastructure (compute, data), climate-tech enablement, and platform biotech are absorbing the majority of growth capital.

Manager selection

In concentrated markets, manager access to leading rounds matters more than top-quartile track record across the board.

Risk framing

Concentration introduces vintage risk if leadership rotates. Position sizing should reflect the dispersion narrowing.