Overview

The first-half assumption of synchronized global easing has weakened. The June FOMC dot plot lifted the path, and the BOK is positioned for extended hold. The implication for allocation is not bearish — it is a reset of relative attractiveness across duration, carry, and growth.

What changed

June FOMC moved the dot plot higher; BOK on extended hold. Term-premium dynamics shifted.

Duration positioning

KR duration retains carry advantage in a hold regime, but tail-end convexity becomes more sensitive to fiscal supply.

Carry vs growth

Investment-grade credit carry remains attractive; growth equity selection benefits from disinflation differentials.

Implementation

Rebalance toward intermediate KR duration, selective IG credit, and quality growth — away from rate-sensitive long duration.